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Seller – What Do These Stats Really Imply?
The real estate market does not move in one direction nationwide. It never has. What is happening in Austin is not what is happening in Cleveland. What is true for a three-bedroom in the suburbs of Dallas has almost nothing to do with a two-bedroom in San Francisco. Before you do anything else, narrow your focus to the specific market you are shopping in and stop reading national headlines as if they apply to you personally.
The arithmetic here is brutal and worth understanding clearly. A buyer who financed a $400,000 home at three percent in 2021 pays roughly $1,686 per month on principal and interest. That same loan at a seven percent rate costs $2,661. Those numbers explain why the market froze rather than crashed when rates moved higher. Volume collapsed. Prices mostly did not.
Affordability, by the standard measure of what share of median household income goes toward the monthly payment on a median-priced home, is near its worst level since the early 1980s. That is a real problem, and it is not going away quickly. But affordability being stretched does not mean prices are about to fall sharply. What it means, practically, is that the buyer who can close confidently has more leverage than the headline numbers suggest.
Your credit score affects your rate more directly than most buyers realize. The difference between a 680 score and a 760 score can mean a half-point or more in rate. If your score has room to improve, pull your reports, find the issues, and address them before you start shopping seriously.
The inspection is where the marketing copy meets reality. Show up for it even if it costs you half a day of work. A good home inspector will walk you through what they are finding as they go, and you will learn more about the property in three hours than in any number of showing visits.
Negotiation works best when it is quiet and well-prepared. Before you make an offer, find out whether there are other offers on the table or offers that have already fallen through. A listing that has been sitting for six weeks with no price adjustment is a fundamentally different negotiation than a property that is drawing multiple showings every day.
The timing question, whether to buy now or wait for prices to pull back, is the one that trips up more buyers than any other single factor. No one consistently times the real estate market. The more useful question is not whether now is the right time in the abstract; it is whether you can carry the payment without strain.
Real estate rewards preparation more than it rewards timing. The market does not wait for the ideal moment, and neither should buyers who have done the work. Check up-to-date property listings and see whether what is available matches what you have been planning for.